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The Avelor narrative
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Structure preview: the full narrative renders below the gate for review.Avelor is safety infrastructure for polypharmacy plus supplements.
It begins as the intelligence layer for everything you take: the only platform that recognizes and safety-checks your whole stack, every supplement and every clinic-prescribed Rx, peptide, and hormone, grounded in primary literature. It works with your labs and your clinic, not against either. The same engine and data asset expand from consumers and clinics today into payers and government next.
Phase 1App-first and clinics · executing now
The fast-money business we are building today.
A consumer copilot and a white-label clinic platform on one engine. The fewest procurement layers, the clearest ROI, and the fastest path to revenue. This is the proof, in full depth, below.
Almost everyone takes something, and no one owns whole-stack safety and intelligence.
A universal behaviorMost adults take supplements, vitamins, or prescriptions, often several together, with no system checking them as a combination.
An unowned categoryLabs own diagnostics; clinics own prescribing. The intelligence layer across everything you take is open.
AI clears the 10x barReal-time, whole-stack, evidence-grounded reasoning no static app or time-strapped clinician can match.
23,005supplement-related ED visits per year in the US, plus 2,154 hospitalizationsSource: CDC and FDA analysis, Geller et al., NEJM 2015
~1.5Mpreventable adverse drug events per year in the USSource: First Databank; Institute of Medicine
A multi-trillion-dollar surface, entered through the sharpest wedge.
$5.3T US / $9.8T globalHealth spendingThe backdrop, not our market. Avelor competes for the recurring intelligence layer on top of what people already self-pay for.
$3.6BGLP-1 (the wedge)Today, scaling to ~$33B by 2035 (US). What people are starting, with no system checking what they take alongside it.
$68.7BSupplementsToday, ~$155B by 2035 (US). What people already take, with no system checking it together.
$80.8BPeptidesUS today, ~$200B+ globally by 2035. The optimization frontier Avelor tracks and safety-checks.
$11.6BHormonesUS today. A natural clinic channel and acquisition surface.
~$7-9BLongevity and wellnessUS today, growing ~12% a year. The optimization market Avelor sits at the center of.
$126B+Lab testing and diagnosticsGlobally. The biomarker layer Avelor reads from and reasons over.
$37-43BAI in healthcareToday, growing ~35% a year. The capability inflection that makes a real-time intelligence layer possible now.
Market sizing: CMS, KFF, Grand View Research, Fortune Business Insights, GWI, 2024-2026. Pricing, ARPU, TAM, SAM, SOM, ARR, and enterprise-value figures are Avelor internal estimates and forward projections, not guarantees.
The category we are building: the AI operating system for personal health.
Not supplements. Not labs. Not another wellness app. A recurring, science-grounded intelligence layer across everything you take and everything your body shows, for consumers and for the clinics that serve them.
TAM~$7.0BThe global intelligence-layer category (Consumer ~$6.6B + B2B ~$0.4B).
SAM~$620MUS-first, next 3 to 5 years.
The revenue path (5-year category model)Bull case ~$300M, bear case ~$85M.
Year 1~$1M
Year 3~$21M
Year 5~$180M ARR
~$1B+enterprise valueAt the multiples public health-software platforms trade on (roughly 5 to 7x revenue), as a software company, not a clinic.
Year-5 ARR is under 3% of the $7.0B category. The ceiling is the category; today we own the wedge.
The ramp comes from three engines: the consumer subscription, the B2B white-label layer, and partner-prescriber revenue, with owned care last, only if the economics become undeniable.
Two engines, one compounding platform.
Two revenue engines on one platform: a consumer subscription, and the same engine white-labeled into the clinics already managing the most complex stacks - longevity, hormone, GLP-1 telehealth, functional medicine, and concierge.
B2C engineThe consumer copilot
Free to start$9.99/mo or $69.99/yr
The paid plan adds messaging capture, deeper memory, and proactive action.~$120annual value per paying member
B2B engineWhite-label for clinics
~$72kblended ACV
The same safety-and-interpretation engine, priced as platform fee + provider seats + active-patient usage. A ~$130M US opportunity, ~$330-455M with international. At 800 accounts that is ~$58M ARR.For scale reference, one provider-software footprint (Press Ganey Forsta) already reaches 41,000 healthcare organizations.
Avelor stays the intelligence layer. Treatment intent routes to partner prescribers and clinics, so Avelor keeps software margins and a software multiple. We add owned care last, only if the economics become undeniable.
An intelligent health copilot, in one platform of four surfaces.
Home (Avelor Protocol), Ask Avelor (the advisor and Crosscheck), Progress (Avelor Signal), and Profile (Avelor Lens). Confirm-first agentic action, long-term memory, PubMed-grounded protocols, messaging-native. The same engine has two faces: the consumer copilot, and a white-label clinician workflow plus Safety API for the clinics in Phase 1.
A compounding data moat: 50,254 studies screened to 21,909 PubMed-grade citations, 423 published supplement-drug interactions, and a whole-stack knowledge graph.
173,636Products indexed
1,034Brands tracked
423Published interactions
244Knowledge-graph compounds
1,253Knowledge-graph relationships
85Compounds compliance-classified
2,338FDA recall records
4,888Active certifications
PubMed groundingEvery claim traces to primary literature (PubMed, NIH, FDA, NSF, BSCG, DSLD). No aggregators by design. PMIDs are live-verified.
Compliance-class systemEvery compound is route-correctly classified (supplement, know-only, medication, flagged) so the product recommends only what is safe to recommend, and tracks the rest.
Served live, never hand-typedEvery number in this section is served live from the database via a public endpoint and refreshes nightly as the moat grows. The figures you see are the figures in production, not a slide.
01
IngestionEvery product, brand, recall, and certification, continuously indexed.173,636Products indexed
1,034Brands tracked
4,888Active certifications
02
GroundingScreened down to PubMed-grade citations. Every claim traces to primary literature.50,254Studies screened
21,909PubMed-grade citations
03
Knowledge graphCompounds and their relationships, so the whole stack is reasoned over together.244Compounds
1,253Relationships
04
Compliance-classEach compound route-classified, so the product recommends only what is safe to recommend.85Compounds classified
423Published interactions
Served live from the database. Refreshes nightly as the moat compounds.
Built fast, with an audience already waiting.
Build velocityA multi-agent build engine shipping the full product. The moat numbers above grow nightly.
An audience already waitingA founder community as day-one distribution. Real, company-reported.
Early signalRetention and engagement once live. Honest, real numbers only.
What we are building next.
The next 18 months turn the wedge into a proven, repeatable platform. This is the proof we are executing against.
A founding engineering teamShipping a reliable, whole-stack product and compounding the data moat.
A clinical advisory boardBeing recruited now to review the science and stand behind the safety layer; named once seated and consented.
A creator-led growth engineA relaunched podcast and a repeatable creator and content system driving efficient, owned acquisition.
The first clinic partnershipsWhite-label and Safety API pilots with longevity, hormone, GLP-1, functional-medicine, and concierge clinics.
Live, with early proofThe app in market, with real retention, engagement, and a growing base of paid subscribers.
The near-term goal: a base of paid subscribers, an efficient and repeatable acquisition engine, the first clinic pilots, and a compounding evidence moat.
Five revenue lines, one compounding platform.
01Subscription ($9.99/mo or $69.99/yr)
02Affiliate
03Telehealth (later, licensed entity)
04B2B safety API
05White-label
The consumer to clinician to prescribing arc: intelligence now; prescribing belongs to a separate licensed medical entity later. Each line runs on the same engine and the same data asset.
Phase 2Payers · the larger engine
The same engine expands to the payers who carry the risk.
Medicare Advantage and Part D aggregate tens of millions of drug-covered lives. Safer combinations reduce avoidable events the payer is already on the hook for. The buyers here are countable and concentrated.
The payer buyers are countable, and they are concentrated.
External market structure, every figure with its source, not a TAM slide. It is who Avelor sells to as the wedge expands beyond clinics.
35.5MMedicare AdvantageEnrollees as of Feb 2026, about 51% of all Medicare beneficiaries. The payer wedge.CMS / KFF, Feb 2026
~57MDrug-covered livesAbout 23M in original Medicare with stand-alone Part D, plus about 34M in MA plans with drug coverage.CMS Part D and MA enrollment, 2026
11,103Obesity-medicine diplomatesBoard-certified physicians, the GLP-1-adjacent clinic wedge entering first.American Board of Obesity Medicine (ABOM), 2026
3,036Direct-primary-care and concierge practicesCounted in a 2018-2023 census; 2,700+ DPC practices cited in 2026. Fewest procurement layers, fastest to sign.Peer-reviewed DPC census 2018-2023; DPC Frontier, 2026
7,900+Menopause Society membersClinicians managing hormone therapy alongside supplement stacks.The Menopause Society, 2026
One wedge, three steps: clinics, then payers, then government.
01
Clinics firstFastest to revenue: the fewest procurement layers, a single decision-maker, and a clear ROI on safer prescribing. The GLP-1, hormone, concierge, and DPC practices above are the entry. This is Phase 1.
02
Payers secondBigger: Medicare Advantage and Part D aggregate tens of millions of drug-covered lives. Safer combinations reduce avoidable events the payer is already on the hook for.
03
Government thirdSlowest, but each logo is large: Medicaid and federal programs procure deliberately, and a single contract covers a state-scale population.
Modeled revenue bridge (near-term wedge)MODELED, near-term wedge bridge. Bottoms-up from clinic ACV and covered-life pricing, more conservative than the 5-year category model above. Specifics live in the data room.
Year 1$0.5 - 0.84MFirst clinic contracts
Year 2$1.75 - 3.75MClinic scale, first payer pilots
Year 3$5.2 - 10.35MPayer expansion, early government
Why the incumbents do not solve this.
Three strong categories, each owning one edge, none owning the combination. Some are potential partners or acquirers, not only competitors.
Enterprise drug databasesMicromedex, First Databank, Wolters KluwerStrong on medications and drug-drug interactions. They stop at the prescription; supplements, peptides, and the consumer stack are out of scope.
Supplement platformsFullscript and the consumer supplement-research and commerce sitesStrong on content, catalog, and dispensary commerce. They do not own medication interaction logic, evidence-cited safety calls, or a white-label clinical workflow.
AI-native clinician productsAbridge, OpenEvidence, CommureStrong on documentation, search, and clinician workflow. They are not built around the combined medication-plus-supplement safety layer.
The white space
No one owns the intersection: medication plus supplement plus GLP-1-adjacent reasoning, in a clinician workflow, with evidence-citation, behind a white-label and API layer. That intersection is Avelor.
Phase 3Government · the largest per-logo footprint
And then government, where one contract covers a state.
Medicaid and federal programs procure deliberately, but each logo is large. The same evidence-cited engine, the same data asset, sold into the slowest and largest buyer last. Getting there is gated by the compliance posture below.
Where we are on enterprise readiness.
Stated plainly. The payer and government phases are gated by this posture, and honesty here is the signal sophisticated buyers want, not a weakness.
Live nowEvidence-cited safety and interaction engine in production. The moat data served live via a public endpoint. PubMed-grounded citation discipline with first-class abstention when evidence is thin.
In progressHIPAA posture and a Business Associate Agreement path for clinic deployments. SOC 2 Type I underway, Type II to follow. Role-based access and audit logging for the white-label surface.
Enterprise-ready (target)SOC 2 Type II, executed BAAs, and procurement-ready security documentation, the gate for payer and government contracts. Sequenced to land before those deals close, not before they start.
A founder with an audience, a build engine, and an advisory board forming.
Ben plus the multi-agent build engine that ships the product as its own story, plus a clinical advisory board being recruited now (named clinicians once seated and consented). We do not claim a seated board until it is seated.
Intelligence now. Prescribing later. The health OS.
NowThe intelligence layer: recognize, safety-check, and optimize your whole stack, for consumers and clinics.
NextPrescribing via a separate licensed medical entity; the clinician channel deepens into payers.
ThenThe health OS: the copilot that runs your whole-stack health, on a leash, across consumers, clinics, payers, and government.
A milestone-based, conservative frame.
$1M ARR4 - 8x$4 - 8M
$10M ARR6 - 10x$60 - 100M
$30M ARR8 - 12x$240 - 360M
Round size, use of funds, and the cap table are NOT on this page. They live in a real, access-controlled data room.
Open the data room